The Expert Council for Climate Issues recently released an updated report confirming the Federal Environment Agency’s calculations regarding German greenhouse gas emissions for 2025.
According to the council, emissions for the current year saw only a minor drop of 0.1 percent compared to the previous year. This relatively modest decline was attributed to increases in the building and transport sectors, which effectively offset reductions achieved in the industrial and energy sectors.
Looking ahead, while the emissions budget up to 2030 might theoretically be maintained with a narrow buffer of 4.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents, the council strongly argues that the projections for 2026 significantly underestimate the expected emission levels for the decade. They estimate that the median emissions path, based on current assumptions, is situated approximately 60 to 100 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents above the permissible budget by 2030.
Barbara Schlomann, the chair of the council, stressed that the underlying assumptions for both the energy and building sectors require urgent updating, as they predict the actual emissions in these segments will likely be higher than currently reported. Furthermore, the expert body warned that key regulatory adjustments, such as the pending building modernization law, have not been factored into the current projections, introducing additional risks to the predicted emissions trajectory.
Given these substantial discrepancies, the council advises the federal government to revise its Climate Protection Program for 2026, as the current framework is insufficient to meet the legal goals set for 2040. The council further noted that a formal confirmation of an emissions budget overrun in the coming year would legally mandate the government to implement additional measures. They concluded that, in its present form, the 2026 program is incapable of preventing these legally required corrective actions, and they anticipate that further lawsuits targeting the government’s climate policies may arise.