Volkswagen is significantly scaling back its sales expectations for the Chinese market and shifting its strategic focus heavily toward exports. Speaking to the “Handelsblatt”, Chief China Officer Ralf Brandstätter announced that the group now forecasts sales of up to 3.2 million vehicles in China by 2030, a notable drop from the previous target of up to four million cars. Furthermore, the company has lowered its expected profitability, anticipating a margin of four to six percent in the future, compared to the double-digit margins that were customary previously. Brandstätter attributed this change by stating, “Those days are not coming back. The market has matured, and competition is more intense”.
Simultaneously, Volkswagen is developing China as a key export base. The group plans to increase annual exports to roughly 250,000 vehicles by the end of the decade, significantly up from the current volume of around 70,000. Volkswagen foresees its growth potential primarily deriving from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America, given that the Chinese domestic automotive market is growing much more slowly. This increased focus on international sales is also mirrored by competitors; for instance, BYD has already set its export target for 2026 at approximately 1.5 million vehicles.
In preparation for the “Beijing Auto Show” Volkswagen has already reduced its domestic production capacities in China by approximately 1.5 million vehicles. The group plans to provide a comprehensive strategy update to the capital markets in Beijing on Thursday.