The planned increase in the contribution assessment ceiling for the statutory health insurance system (GKV) is expected to trigger a significant shift towards private health insurance (PKV). According to the Ministry of Health’s response to an inquiry from “Der Spiegel”, the ministry forecasts an “emigration effect” anticipating that roughly 100,000 current GKV members will switch to private insurance as part of the reforms.
The Financial Commission for Health, which provided the data used by the ministry, indicated that the historical net outflow of GKV members to the PKV had already ranged between 81,000 (in 2024) and 102,000 (in 2025). Therefore, an additional 100,000 prospective switchers resulting from the reform would approximately double these past figures.
The impetus for this predicted movement is the planned supplementary raising of the contribution assessment ceiling within the statutory health insurance. This measure places increased costs on individuals earning higher incomes who are at or above the current contribution ceiling.
Interestingly, the number of affected people appears to be smaller than previously estimated. The ministry now estimates that 5.4 million individuals will be impacted by this ceiling increase, a figure that contrasts with earlier economic analyses which had projected an impact scope of around 6.3 million people.