In light of the escalating military situation in Iran, migration experts warn of new refugee movements toward Europe, though they see the obstacles for migrants as considerably higher than in recent years.
According to Daniel Thym, a migration researcher from Konstanz, Turkey plays a central role in this context. Ankara has expanded its border fortifications with Iran and Syria in recent years and is actively countering irregular migration. Thym told “Handelsblatt” that the country now acts as a bouncer or buffer, keeping irregular migration flows at least in the short term away from Europe.
Whether a large‑scale exodus actually takes place hinges on Iran’s internal stability, Thym explained. If the country remains intact and does not fracture under internal attacks-whether from opposition movements or ethnic groups-then the number of displacement flows would be limited. “It would not be zero, but it would not amount to a mass flight” he added. Should a broader wave of refugees emerge, Germany is likely to again become one of the main destination countries within Europe.
Winfried Kluth, chairman of the Advisory Council for Integration and Migration, nevertheless advises the German government to prepare for the possibility. “Given the historically strong ties between Germany and Iran, it is certainly sensible to make appropriate preparations” Kluth said to “Handelsblatt”. He emphasized that Germany and the EU are now better equipped than before, thanks to the new EU asylum reform and a detailed inventory of available refugee accommodation in municipalities, which should allow for an orderly response should refugee numbers rise.