Former economist Ulrike Malmendier warns that a protracted Iran war would carry serious economic and political fallout for the United States. “Many people voted for Trump because they do not want the US embroiled in a conflict” she told the “Rheinische Post”‘s Wednesday edition. “Now it will hinge on how long the war lasts: after more than four weeks, American citizens start to feel nervous”.
Malmendier explains that a long‑running war would worsen the global economy and that a complete, lasting closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a major headache for the US, “not only because the world economy is already sluggish, but because uncertainty would soar”. Even today, she notes, older Americans are rattled, recalling the 1970s oil crisis when long lines at gas stations and inflation plagued the country. “We live in a different world now” she added, “the United States no longer depends on the Middle East”.
When asked whether oil prices could rise toward $100, she pointed to futures markets suggesting that a steep spike is unlikely if the war does not drag on for too long.