German economist and appointed economic adviser Gabriel Felbermayr warned that the war in Iran would have short‑term negative effects on Germany. “The Iran war will, at least in the near term, lead to longer delivery times and higher prices” he told “Welt”. “With a weak German economy we already need such additional disruptions-like a lump in the throat”. Rising energy costs and uncertain transport routes would hit export‑oriented, energy‑intensive industries, affecting many core sectors in Germany.
Felbermayr is optimistic about the long‑term picture. “If the Mullahs in Iran were to become history and Iran re‑enters the international community as a full‑member state, that would be attractive for Europe and the world” he said. He pointed out that not only would gas and oil become cheaper, but Iran’s size-around 90 million people, most of whom are well‑educated-offers huge catch‑up potential.
For Germany, he estimates a regime change in Iran would provide a larger economic stimulus than the recently concluded Mercosur agreement with Latin America. “A regime change in Iran could accelerate German economic growth by 0.5 percent” he said. Lifting sanctions would give German exporters direct access to the Iranian market, whereas the Mercosur deal would add only 0.1-0.2 percent. “The potential is greater with Iran because of its proximity” he added, suggesting the possibility of exporting Iranian gas to Europe through a pipeline via Azerbaijan.