What’s Hiding in the Fog of Uncertainty?

What's Hiding in the Fog of Uncertainty?

The future of Russia’s military presence in Syria remains unclear. Recently, multiple reports have emerged, suggesting that Moscow is evacuating its military installations in Syria, according to a new analysis by the US think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW claims to have obtained images of Russian military convoys from Friday, moving from Damascus and other southern areas of Syria towards the two main Russian bases. Syrian military and security sources reportedly said that Russia is withdrawing heavy equipment and high-ranking officers from the Syrian Arab Army, but does not plan to permanently withdraw from the Tartus port or the Hmeimim airbase. A Russian source, quoted by ISW, also claimed on Saturday that Russian forces have withdrawn from their base in Kobani, in northern Syria.

The “complex nature” of the Syrian transition government likely leads to contradictory reports on whether Russia is holding talks with Syrian opposition groups, according to ISW. Although the HTS group controls the Syrian transition government, HTS and the government do not yet have complete control over the various groups that contributed to the fall of the Assad regime. It remains unclear whether Russia is in contact with all necessary Syrian opposition groups to ensure the short- and long-term security of its military bases.

Russian state media have not distinguished between the various opposition groups in their reporting on the Syrian situation, the think tank further notes. This might be part of the efforts to present the transition government as a cohesive entity, in order to increase the legitimacy of any agreements Russia may reach with one or some of the groups.