According to CDU foreign affairs expert Norbert Röttgen, the three-day ceasefire in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by US President Donald Trump, is meaningless. Speaking to the Funke media group (Sunday editions), the vice-chairman of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group stated that the agreement is a “classic transaction that fundamentally changes nothing”. He believes that Moscow desperately sought to avoid the embarrassment of failing to hold its parade on Red Square, while the Ukraine gained a long-awaited prisoner exchange. Röttgen concluded that the war will sadly continue regardless.
He views Russian President Vladimir Putin as becoming increasingly pressured. For Röttgen, the reduced military parade held on May 9th is “an unmistakable sign that Putin is under growing strain”. He observes that the war in Ukraine is becoming increasingly unpopular in Russia, and the country’s economy is struggling. He emphasized that Ukraine is successfully transferring the conflict into Russian territory, noting that Ukrainian drones reach as far as Moscow and could inflict considerable damage there.
Furthermore, Röttgen contends that Ukraine is gaining the upper hand in its defense against the Russian army. He stated that “Ukraine has developed its industrial and technological capabilities in the most impressive way under the pressure of war”. This development allows Ukraine to offset some of its personal losses and inflict massive casualties on Russian forces. Moreover, Ukraine now possesses longer-range weaponry, which has significantly curtailed Russia’s oil production.
Röttgen also believes the conflict is likely to impact Russia negatively in the Middle East, rather than Ukraine. While higher oil prices might offset the decrease in Russian oil output, he warned that “the world is learning that Russia is not a reliable partner that can provide relevant assistance to its allies in an emergency”. He also pointed out that Trump’s current focus on Iran represents a loss of attention for Putin. Röttgen summarized the overall situation by suggesting that “Putin is strategically in a bind” as he seeks to maintain good relations with no one, whether the US, Iran, the Gulf states, or Israel.