Producer Prices Swing Wildly Driven By Energy Costs

Producer Prices Swing Wildly Driven By Energy Costs

Producer prices for manufactured goods were 0.2 percent lower in March 2026 compared to March 2025. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), producer prices rose by 2.5 percent compared to the previous month, marking the strongest month-on-month increase since August 2022 (up 5.4 percent).

Both the decrease compared to the previous year and the strong increase compared to the prior month are primarily attributable to energy price movements. The impacts of fighting in Iran and the Middle East were particularly apparent in the year-on-year price hikes for mineral oil products and strong increases across nearly all energy products when compared month-on-month. Overall, energy prices decreased compared to March 2025, fueled by lower prices for natural gas and electricity year-on-year.

Consumer goods were more affordable than a year earlier. However, capital goods, used goods, and semi-finished goods were pricier than in the previous year. Excluding energy, producer prices rose by 1.3 percent compared to the previous year in March 2026, while increasing by 0.4 percent from February 2026.

In March 2026, energy was 3.2 percent cheaper than in the previous year. However, energy prices jumped by 7.5 percent compared to February 2026, representing the largest month-on-month energy price increase since August 2022 (up 14.3 percent). Prices for mineral oil products saw a notable surge in March 2026 due to conflict in Iran and the Middle East, while increases for other energy sources like natural gas and electricity were comparatively modest, mainly due to longer-term contracts and pricing mechanisms. Because electricity and natural gas prices remain high since the start of the war in Ukraine, there were even price drops for these sources compared to the previous year in March 2025.

Mineral oil product prices rose by 18.3 percent compared to March 2025, and by 22.9 percent compared to February 2026. Light heating oil cost 55.2 percent more than in March 2025 and 53.4 percent more than in February 2026. Fuels were 29.5 percent more expensive than in March 2025 and 22.3 percent more than in February 2026.

Distributed natural gas cost 8.0 percent less across all user groups compared to the previous year, but 5.7 percent more than in February 2026. However, the exchange prices for natural gas included in the producer price index also clearly reflected the effects of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East in March 2026, with exchange prices rising 22.1 percent year-on-year and 57.3 percent from February 2026. Due to its lower weight in the overall index, this price increase only had a minor impact on the total development.

Electricity prices fell by 5.8 percent compared to March 2025, but rose by 3.1 percent from the previous month. District heating was 0.6 percent cheaper year-on-year.

Capital goods prices in March 2026 were 1.9 percent higher than the previous year (+0.3 percent compared to February 2026). Machines cost 1.7 percent more, and prices for passenger cars and car parts rose by 1.2 percent compared to March 2025. Used goods were 1.9 percent more expensive in March 2026 than in the previous year (+0.1 percent compared to February 2026).

In contrast, consumer goods produced and sold in Germany cost 0.3 percent less than the previous year, but 0.6 percent more than in February 2026. Overall food prices declined by 1.4 percent, but rose by 0.8 percent from February 2026. Butter (-39.8 percent) and pork (-5.8 percent) were significantly cheaper than in March 2025. Pork prices rose by 7.7 percent from February 2026. Beef (+14.9 percent) and coffee (+4.7 percent) were pricier year-on-year.

Semi-finished goods prices in March 2026 were 1.5 percent higher than the previous year (+0.7 percent compared to February 2026). The rise in prices compared to March 2025 was mainly due to higher metal prices (+8.2 percent). In particular, precious metals saw a significant year-on-year jump of +72.8 percent, and prices also stood 3.2 percent higher from February 2026. Prices for copper and resulting semi-finished products (+17.6 percent) were also higher than the previous year. However, raw iron, steel, and ferroalloys were cheaper than the previous year (-0.8 percent), though reinforced concrete steel was 0.5 percent pricier.

Wood and wood and cork products (+6.0 percent) were also more expensive than the previous year, including sawn softwood (+11.2 percent) and sawn hardwood (+2.7 percent). Significant price increases were observed for pellets, briquettes, and firewood, rising by +26.8 percent year-on-year.

The prices for glass and glassware rose by 3.8 percent compared to the previous year. Among these, refined and processed flat glass was 6.8 percent costlier, whereas the prices for hollow glass fell by 2.2 percent compared to March 2025.

Statistics also reported that chemical raw materials fell by 2.4 percent compared to March 2025, although fertilizer prices rose by 3.3 percent (+2.3 percent compared to February 2026). Paper, cardboard, and related goods cost 2.3 percent less than the previous year. Animal feed (-7.4 percent) and grain flour (-4.3 percent) were also distinctly cheaper than in March 2025, although feed prices rose by 1.1 percent and grain flour prices rose by 0.9 percent compared to the previous month.