The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again slightly downgraded its economic forecast for Germany. The experts in Washington now anticipate 0.8 percent growth for 2026, a decrease from the 0.9 percent forecast provided in October 2025. For 2027, the fund projects a growth of 1.2 percent. This means that in 2026, Germany would surpass economies considered strong, such as Italy and Japan, among the countries reviewed.
Regarding the broader Eurozone, growth of 1.1 percent is expected in 2026, which is a 0.1 percentage point reduction compared to the October 2025 forecast. Globally, the economy is projected to grow by 3.1 percent, marking a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from the estimate released in October 2025. Looking ahead to 2027, growth for the Eurozone is expected to be 1.2 percent, and the world economy is set for 3.2 percent growth.
The IMF forecasts the US economy to grow by 2.3 percent in 2026, an increase from the 2.1 percent projected in October 2025. For China, the October estimate of 4.2 percent was raised to 4.4 percent. Furthermore, the IMF now estimates Russian economic growth at 1.1 percent, up from the 1.0 percent expected in October 2025. For 2027, the projections are 2.1 percent for the US, 4.0 percent for China, and 1.1 percent for Russia.
The IMF did caution that these figures are conditional on the Near East conflict remaining limited in duration and scope, and that resulting disruptions subside by mid-2026. The report noted that projections based on pre-conflict assumptions would suggest a slight upward revision of global growth for 2026 to 3.4 percent compared to the January update. Consequently, the downward adjustment for 2026 largely reflects the disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, although these effects are partially offset by the aftermath of recent strong data and reduced customs tariffs.
The International Monetary Fund warned that the world economy faces renewed risks of becoming derailed. It further stated that under an unfavorable scenario involving stronger and more persistent energy price increases, global growth in 2026 would slow further to 2.5 percent, and inflation would reach 5.4 percent. In an even more severe scenario, should the energy infrastructure in the conflict region sustain greater damage, the impact would be even greater: global growth in 2026 would fall to only about 2 percent, while overall inflation would remain just above 6 percent through 2027. The repercussions for emerging and developing economies would be nearly double those affecting advanced economies.