Germany’s population could potentially drop to 81 million by 2045, according to a population forecast released by the Institute of German Economics (IW) on Monday. This expected decline is primarily attributed to decreasing levels of immigration. In a worst-case scenario, the population might fall closer to 77 million, although the upper estimate remains around 85 million.
The new figures signal a significantly smaller population in Germany than previously estimated; contrasting sharply with the IW’s earlier 2024 prognosis, which had predicted moderate growth until 2040. The forecast anticipates that the population of working-age people between 15 and 67 will contract by approximately 8.3 percent, reaching around 50 million by 2045. Meanwhile, the number of residents over 67 is projected to increase from 17 to 20.4 million.
For decades, more people have passed away in Germany than are born. In 2025, the difference is estimated at 350,000 people. The population had not shrunk for a long time because the inflow of immigrants exceeded the outflow. However, changes in government migration policy and only moderately growing skilled labor immigration have altered this dynamic. In 2025, only 250,000 people moved into Germany compared to those who left, resulting in a population loss of 100,000 residents.
IW economist Philipp Deschermeier warned that both the labor market and social security systems could face pressure sooner and more severely than previously assumed. He noted that a shrinking population also diminishes economic potential growth, and the issue is compounded by the burden on pension funds with 20 million retirees. Deschermeier stressed that to address this, “politics must facilitate the immigration of qualified skilled workers, for instance, through faster visa procedures and easier recognition of foreign qualifications”.