According to a model calculation by Strategy&, reported by Der Spiegel, the German armed forces are expected to remain dependent on weapon imports for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, a significant financial gap could emerge by 2035, potentially reaching up to 117 billion euros between the required procurement demand and the total value of defense goods produced domestically.
The consulting firm bases its projections on the assumption that Germany will increase its defense spending to between 3.5 and 5 percent of its gross domestic product by 2035, aligning with current plans. This calculation already accounts for funds allocated to personnel and maintenance. Advisors also estimate that domestic defense companies are projected to grow by up to 17 percent annually while continuing to export a portion of their output.
The magnitude of this projected gap varies significantly depending on market conditions. In the most favorable scenario for the industry, assuming the lowest demand, the shortfall would amount to 22 billion euros. However, in the worst-case scenario, this gap could be more than five times that figure. To successfully close such a large deficit, the industry would need to achieve an ambitious annual growth rate of up to 28 percent.