Around 90 % of industrial firms say the Iran war is expected to affect their businesses, according to the monthly Ifo economic survey that Munich’s Ifo institute released on Tuesday.
Only nine % of companies claim they are currently unaffected. “The conflict impacts industry directly, but it also generates significant uncertainty” says Klaus Wohlrabe, head of the Ifo surveys. “Many firms are preparing for additional burdens in the coming months”.
The main reason cited is higher energy costs, with 78 % of firms pointing to this issue. 36 % named restrictions on shipping routes and delivery problems for intermediate products and raw materials. 16 % fear a decline in air‑freight traffic, while 24 % expect a drop in demand in key export markets.
In addition, many businesses see financial risks such as volatile freight and logistics costs, rising insurance premiums, and increased payment defaults. “The results show that the economic fallout from the Iran war is already visible and could worsen through various channels” Wohlrabe added. “The longer uncertainty endures, the greater the economic problems for companies will become”.