Kiel climate scientist Mojib Latif believes a strong El Niño could develop in 2026. He told a German news outlet that surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific will rise steadily through late summer. By the end of the year a “super‑El Niño” could also form, he warned. “The revolver is loaded” he said, referring to the potential for a powerful event.
An El Niño is linked to a weakening of the westerly-blowing trade winds. When these winds are reduced, less cold water upwells off the coast of South America. Warm water piles up, surface temperatures rise, and evaporation increases. This often triggers heavy rains in Peru, Mexico, and California, while the western Pacific stays dry, especially in Indonesia and Australia.
Latif described the current development as textbook, beginning with the characteristic bursts of westerly winds in the western Pacific that counter the trade winds and slow them down. Already north of Peru a temperature anomaly typical of an El Niño is visible. However, uncertainties remain-experts in 2014 also predicted a strong El Niño, but it arrived a year later.
In the coming winter the effects could be felt in Europe. Tim Hempel, who works on seasonal forecasts at the German Weather Service in Offenbach, said atmospheric waves would reach the region with a delay. If a pronounced El Niño occurs, he expects strong Arctic cold spells in the late winter of 2027.