30 am in Frankfurt’s trading hall.. That is 0.8 % below the previous day’s close, and the overall trend is downward.
Consorsbank’s chief market analyst, Jochen Stanzl, commented on the morning’s trading. He said that nobody can predict how the Iran conflict will develop, but noted that “war with diplomacy is better than war without diplomacy”. Stanzl hopes the prices will stabilise despite the poor start. He added that the diplomacy and the extension of the ultimatum could gradually build a confidence boost in the DAX. A stabilisation of the course together with a calming of volatility intensity is “essential for a bottom to form” and without that bottom a new upward trend cannot emerge.
He also observed a “weekend effect” in the conflict: on Fridays and Mondays the market tends to sell, while mid‑week investors are more on the buying side. Stanzl speculates that this weekend effect may widen into an “Easter effect”. The new ultimatum expires on Easter Monday, a non‑trading day in Germany, so many investors may wait until after Easter before deciding whether to re‑enter the equity market.
Since the start of the war, the DAX has fallen by just over a tenth. Stanzl points out that part of the decline already reflects the negative impact of high energy prices, but the remaining price level still contains some optimism that the German economy may survive the forthcoming burdens with a “blue eye”.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose considerably. A barrel of North Sea Brent traded at $110.00 on Friday morning at 9:00 am German time, up 1.8 % from the previous day’s close.
The euro traded a touch weaker that same morning: one euro cost $1.1520, and one US dollar was priced at €0.8681.