The ongoing war in Iran continues to weigh on German consumer sentiment. According to the GfK, the monthly consumer‑climate index fell to -28.0 points in April, a further decline from the revised -24.8 points reported for March.
In this month, the likelihood of making purchases and the tendency to save have not yet shown dramatic changes. However, expectations about future income have taken a noticeable hit. Consumer income expectations-positive since the start of the year-have slumped by 12.6 points to -6.3, putting them back in the pessimistic range. The authors of the study attribute this to a sharp deterioration in business expectations and to the rise in energy prices, which has spurred fears of renewed inflation.
The purchase tendency has only been moderately affected, standing at -10.9 points, a slight decline from the previous month. The saving tendency, which touched a new 2008 high in February, has held steady at a high level of 18.5 points in March.
Rolf Bürkl of the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), which co‑manages the monthly survey, explained: “The drop to -28 points reveals a clear darkening of the consumer climate. Although purchase and saving motives are still largely unchanged by the geopolitical events in Iran, consumers expect that inflation will pick up again because of higher energy prices, and that the economic recovery will be stalled once more”. Bürkl added that 60 % of Germans say they expect oil, gas, and gasoline prices to remain permanently high, a sentiment that “certainly pressures consumer mood”.
The study also shows that general uncertainty among consumers is rising due to the war. More than 90 % of respondents who anticipate a significant worsening of their income situation believe the world will become more unstable in the coming years because of the conflict.