By 2045 the number of working‑age people in Germany is forecast to stay nearly flat, dropping only about 0.5 percent to roughly 43.3 million. That estimate comes from the Bundesinstitut für Bau‑, Stadt‑ und Raumforschung’s (BBSR) latest Erwerbspersonenprognose.
At the same time, regional patterns are becoming more pronounced. In 58 of 96 planning regions the workforce is projected to shrink, especially in the structurally weaker eastern areas such as Altmark, Anhalt‑Bitterfeld‑Wittenberg, and North Thuringia, where decreases of at least 20 percent are expected. In contrast, larger, economically stronger cities will grow. Hamburg and Munich are set to see gains of more than nine per cent, while Berlin is projected to increase by about 15 percent.
Where growth is seen, it comes mainly from migration and a higher employment rate among the working‑age population. In weaker regions, the decline is driven by a lack of young people stepping in to replace those who retire, and neither migration nor higher participation rates are enough to offset those losses.
Policy options therefore focus on attracting newcomers and encouraging more people of working age to enter the labor market. Lifelong learning and vocational retraining will likewise become increasingly important to maintain up‑to‑date skills, especially as the overall labor supply shrinks and fewer young workers enter the market. The projection relies on the BBSR’s current population forecast and the micro‑census data from the federal and state statistical offices.