Experts anticipate that the rising wholesale price of gas-driven by the war in Iran-will affect many district‑heating customers, but the impact will come with a delay. “Whether the heat is produced locally will determine the effect” says Florian Munder, an energy specialist with the German Consumer Association (VZBV). “Some networks are largely free of fossil fuel, which is an advantage in the current crisis”.
Because most district‑heat providers are only allowed to raise prices once a year-and in some cases only twice or four times a year-there can be a long lag before the higher wholesale prices are reflected in consumer bills. Munder notes that large suppliers usually use a long‑term index from the Federal Statistical Office that tracks fuel costs over time. Smaller operators, however, often turn to market‑based indices that capture short‑term price shocks more quickly.
The industry association AGFW affirms that tensions in the gas market can spill over into fossil‑fuel‑based heating plants. The timing of price changes depends significantly on how much gas a supplier purchases in advance-short‑term or long‑term contracts both matter. After Russia’s attack on Ukraine, district heating was initially a relatively cheap heating method, and the steep rise in gas prices hit consumers only after a delay.
Werner Lutsch, AGFW’s CEO, agrees that a similar pattern is likely going forward. “District heating may remain comparatively price‑stable for a while, with any potential price hikes only taking effect with a time lag”.