The forecasts from ARD and ZDF for the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election point to a clear defeat for the Social Democrats. Averaging 26.2 % of the vote, the SPD records its worst result ever in the state’s history, while the Christian Democrats lead the poll with a 30.8 % share.
These figures suggest that a grand coalition will form, headed by CDU leader Gordon Schneider. Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) has already acknowledged the Christians’ “good fight”, saying: “In the end it was not enough for us, and we will build a proper government because that is what the people of Rhineland‑Palatinate deserve”.
The Alternative for Germany secures third place with roughly 20 % of the vote, a figure more than double its previous share. The Greens, currently part of a traffic‑light coalition in Mainz, come in fourth with 8.1 %. Both the Free Democratic Party (2.2 %) and the Free Voters (4.0 %) fail to enter the state parliament, and the Left, with 4.4 %, also falls short of the five‑percent threshold. Other parties together average about 4.6 %.