Former U.S. Air Force general and Iran‑strategy expert S. Clinton Hinote says it is almost impossible for the U.S. Navy to secure the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian attacks on tanker ships.
“Blocking the Strait is a problem that cannot be solved solely with military means” he told the news magazine “Spiegel”. “Our Navy escorts would deter a large share of attacks – but I doubt we can guarantee 100 % protection”.
Hinote developed possible war scenarios with George W. Bush in the early 2000s. He stresses that any military option to secure the strait brings almost inevitable risks. “What happens if a drone slips through and an oil supertanker ignites right in the middle of the Strait? If you’re defending a convoy you have to be 100 % successful” he explained. “Until the passage is absolutely safe, ship owners will not expose their crews to that danger, and even an insurer willing to cover a tanker would demand exorbitant premiums”.
He labeled the option of capturing the Iranian coastline of the Strait as “high‑risk”. “It would require a massive ground operation – highly complex” he said. The Iranian side includes Bandar Abbas, a city of about 700 000 people. “We can’t predict how the local population would react to our soldiers. We can’t know how strongly the people in Iran still back the regime or whether they would respond hostilely”.
Nonetheless, Hinote believes a safe shipping corridor can be achieved by convincing the Iranian regime that further blocking of the Strait is a bad idea. President Donald Trump is reportedly trying to do this by threatening to bombard the oil terminals on the so‑called “Charg” islands, which are critical to Iran’s oil exports. Hinote remains skeptical that such a threat will persuade Tehran’s leadership to change course.