In the YouGov survey released on Tuesday, both the CDU/CSU and the AfD now stand at 26 %, each gaining one point since the Institute’s February poll. The other parties changed less dramatically: the SPD declined to 14 % (‑2 pp), the Greens rose to 13 % (+2 pp), the Left slipped to 9 % (‑1 pp), the BSW fell to 3 % (‑1 pp), the FDP dropped to 3 % (‑1 pp), while “others” remained at 6 %.
YouGov also asked respondents about the war between the United States/Israel and Iran. A majority – 54 % – consider the conflict either not justified at all or only somewhat justified, whereas just 27 % view it as somewhat or fully justified. Support for the war is strongest among CDU/CSU voters (38 % say it is justified, 49 % say it is not) and AfD voters (33 % justify, 47 % oppose).
When queried about whether the United States should use German military facilities to launch operations in Iran, a slim majority opposed this idea. Sixty‑three percent of respondents-53 % outright against and 20 % in support-disagreed with the proposal, 18 % declined to answer and 10 % remained undecided.
Only a small fraction of Germans hold a clear expectation about the war’s duration. Four percent believe it will end within a month, while 16 % anticipate it lasting one to less than three months, 15 % expect three to less than six months, 17 % forecast six months to a year, and 18 % think it could last longer than a year. Thirty percent are uncertain about the timeline.
The majority foresee significant consequences from the Iran conflict. Seventy percent think it will seriously affect Germany’s energy supply, 68 % foresee high living costs, 62 % expect major economic repercussions, and 51 % anticipate substantial migration impacts. Fewer respondents see large effects on national security (38 %) or social cohesion (26 %).
YouGov surveyed 2,248 eligible voters aged 18 and older in an online panel from March 13 to 16. The respondents were weighted according to age, gender, education, region, political interest, and voting behaviour to reflect the overall German electorate.