A new ZDF political barometer released a week before the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election finds the CDU just ahead of its rivals. When voters were asked who they would prefer as Minister‑President, 41 % named SPD’s Alexander Schweitzer, 23 % favored the CDU’s Gordon Schnieder and only 6 % picked AfD’s Jan Bollinger.
If the election were held on that Sunday, the poll shows the SPD with 26 %, the CDU 28 %, the Greens 9 %, AfD 19 %, the Free Voters 5 %, and the Left 5 %. All other parties together account for 8 %. An additional 30 % of respondents said they were still undecided or had not yet decided whom they would vote for.
With these figures, a coalition between the CDU and SPD would be sufficient, and other parties have ruled out any partnership with the AfD.
A comparison with the last state election five years ago shows the SPD previously held 35.7 %, the CDU 27.7 %, the Greens 9.3 %, the AfD 8.3 %, the FDP 5.5 %, the Free Voters 5.4 %, and the Left 2.5 %. All remaining parties together achieved 5.6 %.
The survey’s assessment of the parties in government is rather critical. The SPD receives a modest average of 0.3 on a scale from +5 to -5; the Greens and FDP scores are both -0.8. Opposition parties also score poorly: the CDU 0.1, the Free Voters -0.1, and the AfD a striking -2.6.
Regarding the ideal Minister‑President, Schweitzer is much better rated than Schnieder (average 2.0 versus 1.1) and far above Bollinger, who sits in the negative zone with -2.3.
When asked to evaluate potential coalitions, no model gains more approval than rejection. The least negative scenario is a CDU-SPD government headed by a CDU premier (36 % approve, 45 % disapprove, 16 % neutral). A SPD‑led CDU-SPD coalition follows (35 % approve, 48 % disapprove, 14 % neutral). A coalition of CDU and AfD is clearly rejected (17 % approve, 74 % disapprove, 6 % neutral).
Political priorities differ from the federal level. The top issue for voters is education and school, cited by 25 % as an urgent problem; infrastructure ranks second at 20 %. Economy (15 %), prices/costs (14 %), transport (13 %) and climate/energy (11 %) complete the list.
In the education sector, the CDU claims greater competence than the SPD (27 % versus 24 %) compared with 2021. On the economy, the CDU now scores 24 % versus the SPD’s 19 %, yet many respondents cannot point to a party that could solve the economic challenges.
The poll was carried out by the Mannheimer Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. Interviews were conducted from 10 to 12 March with 1,121 eligible voters in Rhineland‑Palatinate, using telephone and online methods.