Elliot Hentov, chief strategist for geopolitical issues at State Street, believes investors should anticipate a sustained rise in oil prices. “The risk premium on oil will stay for a while, even if the war actually comes to a close” he told “Handelsblatt”.
According to the geopolitics expert, oil could be about 20 % higher after the conflict, placing it around $70‑$75 a barrel. “That would not be an oil shock” Hentov added, “but it would still have consequences – especially for countries like Germany that are heavily dependent on energy imports”. He added that once energy supplies return to normal, prices would normalize, but they wouldn’t recover fully.
Early in the week, Brent crude spiked to $120 a barrel before statements by U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a possible easing in the market, implying the war might be ending soon. Hentov suggests the war could end in “weeks, not months” provided the United States continues to avoid deploying ground troops.
Higher oil prices would raise yields on long‑term sovereign bonds, which, in turn, would make equities less attractive.