Life expectancy in Western Europe is increasingly diverging, according to a study co‑authored by the German Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) and the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) and published in “Nature Communications”.
The research shows that the gap between regions with high and stagnating life expectancy has widened markedly since the mid‑2000s. Between 1992 and 2005, life expectancy rose swiftly across Western Europe, with an average annual gain of about 3½ months for men and 2½ months for women. From 2005 onward the growth slowed considerably. In 2018 and 2019, the yearly increase dropped to roughly two months for men and one month for women.
Regions that already had lower life expectancy experienced the smallest gains. “The key factor is the mortality trend among 55‑ to 74‑year‑olds” said Pavel Grigoriev, head of the BiB research group and one of the study’s principal authors. “In some areas, mortality in this age bracket stagnated or even rose again. This is a deeply concerning development, because many of those individuals are still in mid‑life and employed”.
In Germany, regional life expectancy was largely homogenised from 1990 to 2005. After 2005, progress slowed in every region. Besides the eastern states, certain northern and western areas also saw negative movements, particularly in women, largely due to higher smoking rates. Sebastian Klüsener of BiB summed up that no German region is represented in the upper ten per cent of Western European regions in terms of life expectancy.