Adam Posen, a U.S. trade expert and president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, argues that the war in Iran does not pose an immediate threat to the global economy.
In a guest commentary for “Handelsblatt”, Posen notes that since the Suez crisis of 1956, commentators have tended to overstate how far Middle‑Eastern politics and oil‑market disruptions can affect the world economy. He points out that short‑lived, geographically contained wars have historically left core economic fundamentals unchanged. “Energy is not a scarce resource with a single source; geographic bottlenecks can be overcome” he says.
While the Strait of Hormuz is a choke point, Posen believes that the more Iran tries to prolong a disruption, the more it hurts its own economy and physical security.
However, Posen warns of more serious scenarios. If Iran were to inflict significant damage on a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, it could impair U.S. military force structure and diminish credible deterrence against Taiwan and other U.S. interests.