In the latest Forsa poll conducted for RTL and ntv, the AfD has taken the lead, narrowly surpassing the Union. The Union now stands at 26 percent, while the AfD follows with 25 percent. The SPD remains steady at 14 percent, the Greens are at 12 percent, and the Left at 10 percent, each losing one point. The BSW and FDP both hold at 3 percent, and the share for other parties has risen by one point to 7 percent. Together, non‑voters and undecided respondents account for 26 percent of the electorate-well above the 17.9 percent of non‑voters recorded at the last federal election.
When respondents were asked who they trust most with the country’s problems, only 18 percent place the Union in the lead (a drop of one percentage point). The AfD climbs to 12 percent, holding second place. The SPD remains unchanged at 6 percent, while the Greens and the Left each lose a point, standing at 5 percent and 4 percent respectively. More than half of the German public-54 percent-express that they trust no party to solve the nation’s problems.
A prospective turnaround for Chancellor‑candidate Friedrich Merz (CDU) remains unlikely. After a brief uptick in January, his satisfaction score has slipped back to 23 percent. A striking 75 percent of respondents say they are dissatisfied with Merz’s performance. This marks a 19‑point decline from the June 2025 poll, where he enjoyed 42 percent satisfaction, and brings his approval down to the level of his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, who had 23 percent in July 2024.
The survey took place from 10 to 16 February 2026 and involved 2,504 respondents.