The German federal government is on the verge of missing the legally mandated 2030 interim climate target, according to a draft of the 2026 Climate Protection Programme that the Politico newsletter “Energy and Climate” reported on Monday. In the draft it is stated that, “with the current climate instruments and the assumed framework conditions it is not foreseeable that the transition to greenhouse‑gas neutrality will succeed across all sectors”.
The Federal Constitutional Court, in a 2021 ruling, established that Article 20a of the Basic Law obliges the state to achieve climate neutrality and that safeguarding future freedom requires the transition to be initiated in time. The stricter federal climate law enacted in response to that judgment imposes annual maximum emissions limits for greenhouse gases, as the court demanded. The latest decision of the Federal Administrative Court clarifies that mandatory climate protection programmes must agree on all necessary measures to meet the interim targets.
The 2025 greenhouse‑gas projections in the draft show a 63 % reduction in emissions by 2030, which theoretically makes the 65 % target attainable. However, an assessment from the Expert Council for Climate Issues included in the draft predicts that the target is “probably not going to be met”.
The main stumbling blocks are the transport and buildings sectors. Both are projected to overshoot their 2030 goals: transport emissions are expected to be 169 million tonnes CO₂‑equivalent above target, and buildings about 110 million tonnes CO₂‑equivalent. Even beyond 2030 the draft warns that German climate goals remain at risk. It states that the net‑greenhouse‑gas‑neutrality target for 2045 is unlikely to be met; residual emissions are projected to be 204 million tonnes CO₂‑equivalent in 2045 based on 2025 projection data.
Under the federal climate programme, the government is required to adopt a climate protection programme within twelve calendar months of the start of a legislative term. Environment Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) has announced that the 2026 programme will be presented in March. The programme will contain the government’s climate balance and must include all measures necessary to achieve the 2030 and 2040 climate targets, as well as the yearly targets for the years 2031 to 2040.