Jana Puglierin, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), says Germany and the rest of Europe will need roughly ten years to achieve conventional military independence from the United States.
According to Puglierin, the most critical gaps lie in strategic key areas that European armies lack and for which they remain heavily reliant on U.S. technology and support. She cited airborne reconnaissance, target‑finding systems, integrated air‑defence, and strategic airlift as prime examples. “Europe has to be able to defend itself alone” she emphasized. “If we stay dependent on a protector, we essentially become a protectorate”.
She warned that the required upgrades in these fields will take a minimum of five years, possibly a decade or more for domains such as surveillance and satellite assets. “We have a massive credibility problem with deterrence” she noted, adding that President Donald Trump’s handling of the Greenland crisis had weakened the effectiveness of the U.S. assistance clause and that the former model of a NATO composed of partner nations is no longer on the table and will not return.
The most pressing question, Puglierin pointed out, is how European states should react if the U.S. nuclear umbrella weakens. An EU nuclear weapon would not serve as a suitable substitute for many reasons. She called for a pragmatic partnership with France and the United Kingdom-both of which possess nuclear arsenals-to increase their contributions to a truly European deterrent capability.