China’s GDP is expected to grow 5 % in 2025, according to government figures, but experts warn that the high number masks underlying fragility. Former head of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, Jörg Wuttke, described the 5 % target as politically driven and said the country is more realistically moving at 2-3 % growth per year.
Wuttke cited several head‑liners that undermine long‑term expansion: a rapidly ageing population, mounting debt, and a weak real‑estate sector that used to contribute 20-25 % of GDP. He also criticised the reliability of official statistics, arguing that the more centralised the system becomes, the poorer the data quality. “As long as the figures look good they’re enough” he said.
Consumer spending, he added, will not revive the economy because many Chinese people are fearful and are saving instead of spending, while significant private wealth is leaving the country. These domestic problems, Wuttke warned, spill over into China’s foreign policy, increasing risk appetite in matters such as Taiwan even as the military becomes modernised yet remains institutionally fragile.
For European businesses, the practical takeaway is to balance opportunity and caution. “Those who fail to understand China lose, and those who rely too heavily on it also risk losing” he cautioned.