Consumer confidence in Germany is easing slightly at the start of the year. Both the outlook for the economy and income expectations have risen, while the tendency to save has largely stayed flat, according to the GfK Consumer Climate Index set to be released on Wednesday morning.
For February, the index is expected to climb 2.8 points to -24.1 compared with the previous month. The improvement is driven mainly by a sharp jump in income expectations, with purchase propensity increasing modestly. “With the current rise, the consumer climate can largely offset the large losses from the previous month. However, the level remains low” said Rolf Bürkl of the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), which is involved in the study. He added that a sustained positive trend remains uncertain, as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade escalation could quickly dampen sentiment again.
In the current month, better income prospects have boosted purchase propensity: the indicator rose 3.5 points to -4.0. The best figure on record was -2.1 points in March 2022. Inflation – a key factor in consumer willingness to spend – has also been easing, with the German inflation rate falling to 1.8 % in December 2025, relieving the pressure that many consumers cite as a major reason for restrained buying.
Economic outlook for the next 12 months has also improved. The indicator rose 5.4 points to 6.6, 8.2 points higher than the same period last year.
With a second consecutive uptick, analysts see growing evidence that the German economy, after three years of recession or stagnation, is returning to a moderate growth path. They now expect the economy to grow by roughly one percent this year, reflected in the consumer sentiment data.