The prospect of regime change in Iran, potentially facilitated by the United States under President Donald Trump, has resurfaced in German political discourse, prompting a complex debate about intervention and its potential consequences. Armin Laschet, Chairman of the German Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee, made the assertion during a recent television appearance, suggesting that Trump possesses a unique capability to instigate the collapse of the current Iranian regime.
While acknowledging his general aversion to externally imposed regime change, Laschet argued that the current Iranian protests represent a groundswell of popular discontent. He posited that external pressure, specifically from the US, could provide the crucial impetus to topple the existing leadership. “It can only be him” Laschet stated, referring to Trump, adding that he wouldn’t rule out external assistance in delivering the final blow.
Laschet’s assessment highlights a concerning narrative regarding the Iranian opposition, claiming the movement lacks a unifying figure capable of leading a sustained challenge to the regime. He attributed this absence to the likely consequences facing potential leaders within Iran – immediate arrest or worse. This observation underscores the precarious position of internal dissent and reinforces the argument for external leverage.
The potential ramifications of such a shift, according to Laschet, are substantial. “If the Mullahs were to fall, the world would be a different – a better – place” he remarked, implicitly endorsing a dramatic geopolitical realignment.
Beyond mere speculation, Laschet’s comments also included a concrete policy recommendation. He advocated for placing Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the European Union’s terror watchlist, arguing that such a designation would sever financial lifelines and curtail the power of the ruling elite. This suggestion carries significant weight, potentially signaling a hardening of the EU’s stance toward Iran and a willingness to escalate economic pressure.
However, Laschet’s pronouncements have drawn immediate criticism. Critics within Germany are likely to question the wisdom of openly endorsing a US-led strategy that could destabilize a volatile region, arguing that it risks escalating tensions and potentially triggering a wider conflict. Furthermore, the assessment of Iran’s opposition as entirely devoid of viable leadership has been challenged, with many pointing to the resilience and complexity of the pro-democracy movement within the country, despite the risks. The debate highlights the delicate balance between supporting human rights and avoiding actions that could inadvertently exacerbate instability and human suffering.