A significant decline in asylum applications has been observed across the European Union, marking a notable shift in migration patterns compared to 2024. Internal analysis from the European Commission, revealed through a report in “Welt am Sonntag” indicates 780,209 applications were registered as of December 16th, representing a 19% decrease year-on-year.
The preliminary assessment, which does not differentiate between initial and subsequent applications, highlights Germany and France as the primary destinations. Germany registered 149,127 applications, closely followed by France with 148,591. Spain (137,263) and Italy (125,824) also accounted for substantial numbers.
Discrepancies in the drivers behind application volumes reveal underlying complexities. While Germany is grappling with a surge in follow-on applications, particularly impacting Afghan women seeking protection based on gender-specific persecution, a legal precedent established by the European Court of Justice is shaping the landscape. Over 20,000 such applications originated from Afghan women already residing in Germany. In contrast, France’s figures are increasingly boosted by Ukrainian citizens seeking longer-term residency permits, with more than 12,000 filing applications in 2025 alone – a distinction absent in Germany’s application dynamics.
The influx of Venezuelan asylum seekers continues to disproportionately impact Spain. The EU Commission’s documentation reveals that 94% of the roughly 88,000 Venezuelan applicants across the EU applied specifically in Spain, comprising two-thirds of Spain’s overall 137,000 applicant pool. This concentration raises questions regarding Spain’s asylum processing capacity and potential strain on resources.
Interestingly, the EU has achieved a 61% reduction (approximately 17,000 individuals) in illegal migration via the perilous Canary Island route in 2026. The Commission attributes this success to “enhanced coastal patrols” conducted by the maritime forces of Mauritania and Senegal, a development lauded by some but immediately raising concerns regarding the potential for displaced individuals to simply shift routes and face alternative, equally perilous dangers. This success also obscures the broader complexities of migration, potentially diverting resources from addressing root causes and seeking more sustainable solutions.