The European Commission is projecting a significant increase in deportations from the European Union, signaling a hardening of the bloc’s stance on migration and raising concerns about due process and international human rights obligations. According to EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner, the rate of deportations has already risen from 19% in 2023 to 27% in 2025, with projections indicating a potential record high for deportations in 2025 since 2019. Brunner, formerly Austria’s Finance Minister, asserted that these figures demonstrate early successes and emphasized the need to “combat illegal migration on all fronts.
The Commission attributes the rising deportation rates to the implementation of legislative proposals introduced earlier in 2025, which are intended to enhance the efficiency of member states’ deportation processes. Brunner stressed the importance of swiftly rejecting asylum claims and fostering closer collaboration with third countries to deter irregular migration routes.
A key element of the EU’s evolving approach is the “Common European Return System” unveiled earlier this year. This system proposes stringent measures, including significant benefit reductions for migrants refusing cooperation with return procedures and pre-emptive detention for up to 24 months for those suspected of attempting to evade deportation. Criminalized migrants face potentially indefinite detention. Furthermore, the proposal aims for mutual recognition of deportation orders among EU member states, streamlining the process.
The plans also include a controversial expansion of deportation possibilities. Individuals could now be returned to countries where they have no prior connection, a move critics denounce as a violation of fundamental asylum principles. The introduction of “return hubs” located outside the EU, notably demonstrated by a recent agreement between the Netherlands and Uganda, is intended to accelerate deportation procedures, essentially outsourcing asylum processing.
Recently, the Commission has also designated seven countries as “safe” allowing for the expedited return of asylum seekers from those nations, often within a six-month timeframe, bypassing more thorough assessments of their individual situations. This designation and the broader shift towards accelerated and expanded deportations, has already drawn sharp criticism from human rights organizations who argue it risks violating international law and exposing vulnerable individuals to persecution and danger. The move has intensified a political debate within the EU regarding the balance between border control and the protection of asylum seekers.