Germany’s bicycle industry, reeling from a protracted downturn, faces a deepening crisis as recovery hopes dissipate and sales are predicted to decline further in 2025. Industry representatives are now openly acknowledging a miscalculation regarding the pandemic-era boom and questioning the long-term sustainability of the German bicycle market.
Burkhard Stork, Managing Director of the German Bicycle Industry Association (ZIV), told Handelsblatt that the anticipated turnaround has failed to materialize, with sales figures expected to fall once again next year. Several companies continue to grapple with precarious liquidity situations, raising concerns that some may face significant financial distress.
The current predicament stems from several converging factors. While the industry had cautiously anticipated a rebound in 2025, sales already slumped for the fourth consecutive year in 2023, dropping to 3.85 million units – a 2.5% decrease. This ongoing decline is compounded by a challenging economic environment marked by uncertainty, burdensome bureaucracy and a perceived lack of decisive political support. High inventory levels further exacerbate the pressure on manufacturers.
Thomas Heckrath-Rose, Managing Director of Rose Bikes, echoed these concerns, attributing the ongoing struggle to a broader lack of investment and policy direction. He criticized what he described as an overly optimistic outlook regarding the post-pandemic bicycle market.
The industry is now confronting the realization that the surge in demand witnessed during the pandemic – which briefly pushed sales to 5 million bicycles, a significant jump from the average 4 million – was largely a consequence of accelerated purchases, not a lasting shift in consumer behavior. “It was perhaps a bit naive to assume that the sharply increased demand at the beginning of the pandemic represented a new, permanently higher level” Stork conceded. The prevalent belief that this spike would translate into continued growth appears to have been a fundamental misjudgment.
The sobering assessment raises questions about the future of bicycle manufacturing in Germany and highlights the potential impact of short-sighted projections amidst extraordinary economic circumstances. Stork’s suggestion that the German market may be inherently capped at around 4 million bicycles annually, if proven accurate, signals a potentially painful period of restructuring and strategic reevaluation for the industry. The long-term political and economic implications for a sector struggling to adapt remain to be seen.