The internationally recognized Yemeni government has declared a significant shift in its alliance with the United Arab Emirates, effectively terminating a previously existing agreement related to the ongoing conflict with the Houthi rebels. This abrupt move, spearheaded by the Saudi-backed Yemeni Presidential Council, has escalated already precarious tensions within the region and raises serious questions about the future trajectory of the Yemen war.
On Tuesday, the Yemeni Presidential Council issued a formal demand for UAE forces to withdraw from Yemeni territory within a 24-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, a 72-hour ban on all border crossings was implemented-with the decisive exception of crossings approved by Saudi Arabia-signalling a clear attempt to exert control over movement and limit UAE influence within the country.
The rupture in the partnership has been dramatically underscored by a recent Saudi airstrike targeting the port city of Mukalla. Initial reports suggest the strike was aimed at intercepting a shipment of weapons reportedly originating from the UAE and intended for delivery to Yemeni separatists. Saudi state media characterized the action as a necessary response to an “imminent threat” subtly pointing to concerns about the UAE’s activities and potential destabilizing effect on the broader conflict.
This incident is not an isolated event, but rather a manifestation of deepening divisions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite their shared objective of countering Iranian-backed Houthi influence. While both nations have historically collaborated in the conflict, diverging strategies and regional ambitions have created a growing rift. The UAE’s support for separatist movements, particularly those seeking independence for southern Yemen, have demonstrably clashed with the Saudi vision for a unified, albeit Saudi-aligned, Yemen.
Analysts suggest the Saudi airstrike and the Yemeni government’s ultimatum to the UAE represent a deliberate attempt by Riyadh to reassert its dominance in the Yemeni conflict and curtail the UAE’s increasingly independent operations. The ramifications are likely to be far-reaching, potentially reshaping alliances within Yemen and complicating the already fragile prospects for a negotiated peace settlement. The sudden withdrawal of UAE forces could create a power vacuum, exploited by both the Houthi rebels and other non-state actors, further complicating the humanitarian crisis that has plagued Yemen for years. The long-term impact on regional stability remains to be seen.