Shifting Alignments and Political Necessity in Eastern Germany
The upcoming state elections in eastern German states are poised to trigger a significant realignment of political forces, potentially forcing a reluctant collaboration between the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the left-wing Die Linke. This prospect, articulated by Manfred Güllner, head of the respected polling institute Forsa, underscores the growing difficulty of forming stable governments without either directly engaging with, or implicitly enabling, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Güllner’s assessment, published in the Rheinische Post, focuses particularly on the September elections in Saxony-Anhalt. Current polling data reveals the AfD commanding substantial support, consistently hovering around 40% in both Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. This surge, fueled by anxieties over cost-of-living concerns and immigration, has created a volatile political landscape where traditional coalitions are struggling to find a viable path forward.
The emergence of the AfD as a dominant force necessitates a critical examination of established political norms. Güllner argues that in Saxony-Anhalt, the possibility of a government excluding the AfD is increasingly contingent on the inclusion of Die Linke. A similar scenario is expected in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where a potential coalition involving the SPD, CDU, Greens and Die Linke-a complex blend of ideologies-might be the only option for preventing an AfD-backed government.
However, this potential convergence presents a significant hurdle for the CDU, which currently maintains a formal incompatibility resolution preventing cooperation with Die Linke at the national level. This ideological barrier, seemingly designed to preclude any formal alliance, now appears increasingly unsustainable given the evolving political realities. The CDU’s leadership will be compelled to weigh the principles of its parliamentary platform against the practical imperative of ensuring stable, democratic governance in the face of the AfD’s rising influence.
The situation highlights a deeper, broader challenge for German politics: how to effectively counter the AfD’s appeal without inadvertently strengthening its position through fragmented opposition strategies. The potential CDU-Linke cooperation, while deeply uncomfortable for many within both parties, may represent a necessary, albeit politically risky, maneuver to safeguard the democratic integrity of eastern Germany. The looming elections, therefore, are not merely about the outcome of state-level governance but could fundamentally reshape the contours of German coalition politics.