Germany’s import prices declined by 1.9% in November 2025 compared to the previous year, marking the most substantial year-on-year decrease since March 2024. While October saw a -1.4% change and September a -1.0%, a concerning upward trend emerged month-on-month, with prices rising by 0.5% in November. This presents a potential challenge for policymakers attempting to navigate inflation and maintain economic stability.
Export prices, in contrast, edged up 0.3% in November compared to the same month in 2024, following a +0.5% and +0.6% increase in October and September respectively. The relatively modest increase suggests a weakening global demand for German exports, a factor that could further dampen economic growth.
The primary driver behind the import price decline was a substantial drop in energy prices, down a significant 15.7% year-on-year. However, this trend reversed sharply in November with a 3.1% increase from October. This volatility in energy markets, particularly the resurgence in prices, introduces uncertainty and complicates efforts to predict future inflation rates. The spike, even minor, throws doubt on the long-term sustainability of cheaper energy, a crucial factor in German industry’s competitiveness.
Excluding energy, import prices only fell marginally – 0.3% year-on-year. Further isolating the impact of oil and petroleum products, the index registered a modest 1.1% decrease compared to November 2024 but rose 0.4% from October, highlighting a potential shift in import costs.
Agricultural imports saw a modest decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with raw cocoa prices plummeting a dramatic 28.0%, reflecting global market fluctuations potentially linked to weather patterns and supply chain disruptions. Conversely, prices for raw coffee experienced a significant surge of 23.0%, raising concerns about rising food costs for consumers. This dichotomy – cheap grains versus expensive coffee – suggests a complex and uneven playing field for German importers.
The divergence in import pricing across different categories also paints a nuanced picture. Investment goods remained relatively stable, dipping only 0.5% compared to the previous year, while intermediate goods saw a rise of 0.3%, potentially reflecting increased input costs for German manufacturers.
The fluctuation in consumer goods prices, particularly in food, shows a similar pattern. While the overall index registered a slight decrease of 0.3% from November 2024, certain staples like roasted or decaffeinated coffee, beef and poultry witnessed significant price increases, eroding any gains made through cheaper imports. Government intervention and measures to address supply-chain related price hikes within the food sector may be required.
The divergence in export trends, with a rise in intermediate and investment goods, contrasts the import behaviour. This suggests that while German industries may be encountering difficulties sourcing raw materials, their finished products are facing increased competition in global markets.
Critically, energy exports demonstrate a marked price decrease of 6.2% compared to November 2024, coupled with a 6.3% increase from October. This erratic behavior underscores Germany’s ongoing vulnerability to fluctuating global energy markets and demands a re-evaluation of energy policy to ensure long-term stability and independence. The recent upward pressure on energy export prices suggests a potential for inflationary pressure domestically, requiring careful monitoring and strategic policy responses.
The overall data presents a mixed and somewhat worrying picture for the German economy. While the year-on-year decrease in import prices provides some relief, the month-on-month increases and the volatility in specific sectors flag potential inflationary pressures and challenges for exporters. The government faces a delicate balancing act of encouraging domestic demand and protecting industries from volatile global market forces.