Demographic shifts across Germany are poised to exacerbate existing regional inequalities, according to newly released projections from the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) and the Federal Institute for Building, Urban and Regional Research (BBSR). The data, unveiled this week, highlight a stark divergence in population development expected over the coming decades, painting a complex picture of challenges and potential political fault lines.
The projections reveal a particularly sharp increase in the proportion of elderly residents in rural areas, measured by the aging quotient – the ratio of individuals over 65 to the working-age population. This indicator is predicted to rise significantly across all modeled scenarios until the late 2030s, primarily driven by the ongoing retirement of the large baby boomer generation. While a stabilization or slight decline is forecast following this period, the levels achieved will remain historically high.
Critically, the study underscores a deepening divide between urban centers and rural regions. While large cities, currently benefiting from a relatively younger population, will experience a more moderate increase in their aging quotient, rural and sparsely populated areas face a more concerning trajectory. Without significant immigration, the proportion of elderly residents relative to the workforce is expected to rise substantially. Even with the inclusion of immigration – currently touted as a key strategy to combat labor shortages – rural areas will still witness a considerable increase in the aging quotient.
The diverging population trends are intrinsically linked to shifting settlement patterns. While immigration is projected to drive population growth in major cities, many rural areas are likely to experience population decline. This potential exodus carries significant political implications, threatening the viability of local services, infrastructure and the very fabric of rural communities. Concerns are rising that the current approach to immigration – largely focused on urban hubs – is inadvertently contributing to the hollowing out of rural regions, potentially fueling resentment and reinforcing existing political polarization.
The findings demand a re-evaluation of regional development policies. The current emphasis on urban growth risks neglecting the needs of rural communities and could lead to increased social and economic disparities. Addressing this requires not only targeted immigration strategies for rural areas, but also investments in local economies, infrastructure and affordable housing to ensure their long-term sustainability. Failure to do so risks creating a two-tiered system within Germany, where thriving urban centers stand in stark contrast to struggling, aging rural landscapes, a scenario with far-reaching social and political consequences.