A protracted period of conflict appears likely to continue in Ukraine, despite recent diplomatic progress involving the United States and European Union, according to Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference. Speaking to the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, Ischinger expressed deep skepticism regarding the potential for a swift ceasefire or lasting peace agreement with Russia.
“It would be miraculous if the outcome of a recent meeting in Berlin, convened by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, directly led to peace or a ceasefire with Russia” Ischinger stated, emphasizing a prevailing sense of caution within diplomatic circles. While acknowledging that the Berlin talks fostered “new trust” between Ukrainian, American and European representatives, marking a “certain breakthrough” he cautioned that a consensus among Western powers alone is insufficient.
Ischinger predicts Russia will employ delaying tactics and propaganda, likely referencing the initial and ultimately rejected, 28-point proposal originating from the US and Russia. He anticipates Moscow will lament the alleged dismantling of that plan by European nations and Ukraine, strategically re-framing the narrative to its advantage.
A particular concern and one echoed within political commentary, revolves around the potential for instability introduced by direct communication between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump. Ischinger voiced apprehension that the repeated shifts in US policy stemming from such interactions could undermine any hard-won diplomatic gains. “My worry is that this game will start all over again” he warned, highlighting the fragility of the current tentative progress and the lingering possibility of a relapse into previous cycles of negotiation and disruption. The precarious nature of the situation underscores the complexities of achieving a durable resolution to the ongoing conflict.