Preliminary data released by Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office, reveals a nuanced and potentially concerning picture of Germany’s service sector performance in September 2025. While nominal turnover increased by 0.2 percent compared to August 2025, the real (inflation-adjusted) figure indicates a slight decline of 0.2 percent, signaling a potential weakening of underlying economic momentum. Year-on-year, the sector demonstrated a more robust performance, with real turnover up 1.6 percent and nominal turnover rising by 3.2 percent, masking the fragility revealed by the month-on-month figures.
The sectoral breakdown highlights a fragmented recovery. The construction and real estate segments demonstrated the most significant real turnover growth, registering an increase of 0.9 percent compared to the previous month, likely fueled by ongoing government stimulus packages aimed at sustainable building initiatives. Information and communication services experienced a positive upturn of 0.6 percent, potentially reflecting the continued digitization efforts across various industries. However, the 0.8 percent real decline in transportation and warehousing raises questions about the resilience of logistics and supply chain operations, particularly as global trade faces ongoing uncertainties.
More alarmingly, the contraction in “other economic services” (including rental of movable goods and temporary employment agencies) and in the realm of liberal, scientific and technical services, both experiencing declines of 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent respectively, points towards potential waning consumer and business confidence. These sectors are often highly sensitive to economic shifts and their performance could foreshadow broader challenges in the months ahead.
Critics argue that the seemingly positive year-on-year figures are largely attributable to the low base of comparison against a difficult September 2024, rather than reflecting a truly robust recovery. Furthermore, the reliance on construction and real estate to drive growth raises concerns about sustainability and potential over-reliance on government-supported initiatives. The government’s focus on these sectors risks neglecting the underlying structural weaknesses apparent in areas like transportation and professional services. Future economic policy, analysts suggest, requires a more targeted approach, addressing the specific vulnerabilities within these sectors and bolstering long-term competitiveness. A deeper investigation into the factors driving the contraction in critical service areas is urgently needed to ensure Germany’s sustained economic health.