The latest ARD-Deutschlandtrend poll, released this week, paints a stark picture of German voter sentiment and signals a potential shift in the political landscape. The conservative Union bloc (CDU/CSU) currently polls at 27%, a figure unchanged from earlier in November, struggling to gain traction despite holding the chancellorship. Simultaneously, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains a formidable force, holding 25% of the potential vote, a slight decrease from November but still demonstrably within striking distance of the Union.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), junior partner in the governing coalition, maintains 14%, while the Greens and the Left party hold steady at 12% and 10% respectively. The recently emerged “Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW) registers a modest improvement, reaching 4%, barely above the crucial 5% threshold, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) remains precariously below at 3%. These figures underscore the fragmented nature of the German electorate and the potential for significant volatility in upcoming elections.
Public satisfaction with the current CDU/CSU-SPD government remains critically low, with only 20% expressing approval – a two-point decline from last month. This widespread dissatisfaction highlights a significant disconnect between the government’s performance and the expectations of the German population. Within the cabinet, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains the only figure generating majority approval (58%), indicating a degree of public confidence in his ministry’s handling of security concerns.
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) receives a lukewarm 33% satisfaction rating, while Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD) sees a marginal increase in approval to 30%, despite a majority of voters expressing dissatisfaction. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) polls at 28% positive, a slight increase, yet still reflects broader anxieties about domestic policy. Labor and Social Affairs Minister Bärbel Bas (SPD) continues to struggle, with only 26% expressing approval, a marked decrease from October. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), facing mounting criticism, registers a meager 23% satisfaction, accompanied by overwhelming disapproval from 74% of likely voters.
Even within the AfD, the performance of parliamentary group leader Tino Chrupalla faces scrutiny, with only 20% expressing approval. The leader of the Left party, Heidi Reichinnek, suffers from low recognition and trust, with a significant proportion of voters indicating they are either unfamiliar with her work or withholding judgment. Jens Spahn (CDU), parliamentary group leader for the Union, faces widespread disapproval, registering only 16% satisfaction. Green party parliamentary group leader Britta Hasselmann is largely unknown, with a majority of voters unable to offer an assessment of her performance.
The polling data suggests a deepening crisis of confidence in the established political forces and an increasingly polarized electorate, raising significant questions about the stability and direction of German politics. The rise of BSW and the continued strong showing of the AfD demonstrate a need for mainstream parties to address growing anxieties over economic inequality, immigration and social cohesion, failing which, they risk further erosion of their traditional support base.