A seismic shift is occurring within Germany’s energy sector, as a growing body of providers openly question the long-term viability of their natural gas infrastructure amidst increasingly stringent climate targets. A recent survey by consultancy Horváth, encompassing 91 energy providers, reveals a striking 61% anticipate the dismantling or decommissioning of their gas grids by 2040, signaling a dramatic departure from previously held assumptions.
This realignment comes at a time of intense political debate, particularly surrounding the controversial Building Energy Act, which has pitted the government’s ambition for rapid decarbonization against the industry’s concerns about asset devaluation. While previously, significant elements of the energy sector actively warned against prematurely dismissing the role of gas pipelines, the tide appears to have demonstrably turned. Germany’s expansive gas network, stretching nearly 600,000 kilometers, represents a considerable economic investment and has historically generated predictable revenue streams for its operators.
However, the sector is facing mounting pressure. Escalating carbon prices are rendering natural gas increasingly costly and both the German federal government and the European Union are demonstrating a clear trajectory towards phasing out its usage. The survey further underscores this evolving landscape: only a negligible 4% of respondents now believe that a complete conversion of gas pipelines to hydrogen is a realistic prospect.
Instead, capital is being redirected towards electricity storage solutions. A significant two-thirds of surveyed companies are planning to at least double their investments in this area and a robust 70% intend to enter the electricity storage business by 2028. This represents a clear acknowledgment of the future energy mix, one that prioritizes renewable electricity and storage capacity over the traditional reliance on natural gas distribution. The strategic redirection highlights a growing recognition within the industry that the prolonged viability of existing gas infrastructure is increasingly precarious, prompting a significant political and economic reckoning over the future of Germany’s energy network.