A recent study commissioned by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a think tank closely aligned with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has revealed that the party’s aggressive focus on migration policy, culminating in a joint Bundestag vote with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), has likely been detrimental to its electoral performance. The Ipsos survey, based on interviews with 700 citizens both before and after the February 23rd federal election, suggests the CDU’s calculated shift towards a harder line on immigration backfired, alienating core supporters and failing to capture significant support from other voter blocs.
The CDU’s electoral outcome – securing 28.5% of the vote, significantly below initial projections – underscores a broader disconnect between the party’s messaging and the concerns of its base. Polling data from December 2024 had indicated a 33% approval rating, highlighting a worrying decline attributed, at least in part, to the perceived alignment with the AfD, a strategy that triggered intense internal debate and accusations of compromising the party’s traditional “firewall” against extremism.
Former CDU leader Friedrich Merz spearheaded the heightened emphasis on migration, arguing it was essential to address public concerns. However, the KAS study’s findings cast doubt on its effectiveness, with former CDU supporters subsequently voting for the Social Democrats (SPD) or the Green Party explicitly citing the party’s coalition-like actions with the AfD as a key factor in their decision.
Interestingly, the study also points to a substantial resurgence in support for the Left Party (Die Linke) between late 2024 and the February election. The Left Party garnered 8.8% of the vote, a considerable leap from just 4% at the start of 2025. Their gains are attributed to several factors, including a perceived opportunity to surpass the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation, their positioning as a counterweight to the right-wing AfD and policy proposals around housing, taxation and social welfare. The study concludes that the Left Party “mutually benefited” from the CDU’s amplified focus on migration.
Examining voter priorities reveals a crucial divergence in concern. CDU supporters ranked weak economic performance and inflation as the most pressing political issues (29%), followed by migration and immigration (19%). In contrast, Left Party supporters prioritized social inequality, poverty and rising rents (21%) and the perceived rise of the AfD and associated xenophobia (12%).
This data paints a complex picture of the German political landscape, suggesting that the CDU’s attempt to capitalize on anxieties surrounding migration may have inadvertently fueled support for alternative political forces, ultimately undermining its own electoral prospects and widening the chasm between the party’s ideology and the concerns of its own constituents.