A significant majority of German citizens now anticipate an early collapse of the ruling coalition government, according to a new poll published Thursday. The survey, conducted by the Institute for Opinion Research (Insa) and reported by Bild newspaper, reveals a deepening sense of instability within the fragile political alliance.
The poll findings indicate that 54% of respondents believe the current government will not last until the scheduled end of the legislative period in 2029. Just 29% express confidence in the coalition’s longevity, while 17% remained undecided or declined to answer. This pervasive skepticism reflects a mounting perception of discord among the coalition partners – the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Green Party.
Interestingly, the outlook differs sharply along party lines. Unsurprisingly, supporters of the conservative CDU are the most optimistic, with 54% expecting the “black-red” partnership (CDU-SPD) to endure until 2029 and only 35% anticipating a premature dissolution. However, within the SPD, a more pessimistic view prevails, with 43% foreseeing an early collapse.
The divergence is most pronounced amongst supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), where a staggering 78% predict a coalition breakdown. Even among Green Party voters, a notable 45% harbor doubts about the government’s stability, though a significant 36% remain hopeful. Left Party voters also display a heightened degree of skepticism, with 55% anticipating a breakdown.
The survey, which polled 1,004 eligible voters between November 31st and December 7th, 2023, highlights a deepening crisis of confidence in German politics. While the current government has navigated numerous challenges, the widespread expectation of its early demise underscores the persistent tensions and ideological divides threatening to unravel the coalition. The differing opinions across party lines further underscore the inherent fragility and potential for future political upheaval.