The German government faces a looming fiscal crisis in its efforts to modernize the nation’s transportation system, according to a newly released study by the think tanks Agora Verkehrswende and Dezernat Zukunft. The study, reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung, reveals a staggering funding gap that demands immediate and potentially politically contentious solutions.
The research estimates that a minimum of €390 billion will be required by 2030 to cover the costs of rail infrastructure, highways, public transport (ÖPNV) and the transformation of the automotive industry. Critically, €184 billion of this sum remains unfunded, with €76 billion allocated to infrastructure and a further €108 billion earmarked for the public transport system. The shortfall is projected to increase to €435 billion between 2031 and 2035.
“A fundamental restart is urgently needed in the financing of the transportation system” stated Wiebke Zimmer, deputy director of Agora Verkehrswende. While the government’s special asset fund represents an initial step, it is “nowhere near sufficient” to ensure the future viability of roads, bridges, railways, buses and trains.
The study proposes five potential funding options: increased government debt, private capital investment, higher taxes, an expansion of tolling systems, or public transport levies applied broadly. The report underscores the interconnectedness of these options, stating that a failure to utilize one avenue will necessitate a heavier reliance on others to meet the escalating financial burden.
A council of ten experts-including economist Achim Truger, IG Metall chairwoman Christiane Benner, Deutsche Bahn supervisory board chairman Werner Gatzer and Baden-Württemberg’s Green Party Transportation Minister Winfried Hermann-contributed to the study, highlighting the complexity and potential political headwinds surrounding these proposals.
Several suggested measures, particularly a levy on “beneficiaries” who indirectly benefit from public transport-even without actively using it-have proven highly divisive within the expert panel. This concept aims to include those who experience reduced congestion or freed-up parking spaces due to improved public transport networks. Similarly, proposals to broaden road user financing, including the expansion of truck tolls to all weight classes and road types and the introduction of a passenger car toll, have drawn significant resistance.
“It’s clear to all involved that these are not issues that will pass through the political process easily” Zimmer acknowledged. The stated objective is not necessarily to implement these specific proposals immediately, but rather to initiate a broader public debate about alternative and potentially unavoidable financing mechanisms for Germany’s increasingly strained transportation infrastructure. The study implicitly challenges the government to confront the fiscal reality of modernization and to engage in a transparent and potentially uncomfortable conversation with the electorate.