Leading German climate scientist Mojib Latif has voiced deep skepticism regarding the potential for meaningful progress at the ongoing UN climate conference in Brazil, casting a shadow over hopes for impactful policy shifts. In an interview with the “Rheinische Post” Latif cautioned that the conference’s outcome is likely to be a “lowest common denominator” compromise, echoing past disappointments. He pointedly noted that the heralded Paris Agreement of 2015 failed to curtail emissions, which currently sit at record highs.
Latif attributes this persistent failure to a confluence of detrimental political factors. The absence of the United States, a historically significant emitter and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly those involving Russia, significantly hamper collaborative efforts. He suggested a shift in strategy, advocating for smaller, more focused forums such as the G20 and G7, where major emitting nations are concentrated. “That’s where the focus needs to be” he stated, implying that larger, multilateral efforts are proving inadequate.
Recent data paints a grim picture, confirming a 2.3% increase in global emissions in 2024, reaching a staggering 57.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent – a new record. While the rate of increase has demonstrably slowed, the actual emissions remain at an alarming level.
According to the “Emissions Gap Report” a scientific assessment commissioned by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the planet is currently on track for a 2.8°C rise in global temperatures. This trajectory remains drastically beyond the primary goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. While complete adherence to existing national pledges could theoretically reduce warming to between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, the report underscores the widening chasm between ambition and reality.
Latif’s remarks represent a stark critique of the current international framework, suggesting that incremental progress through international agreements and National Determined Contributions (NDCs) is insufficient to avert catastrophic consequences. He strongly urged industrialized nations to redefine climate action not as a burden, but as a fundamental element of global prosperity, essential for securing the wellbeing of future generations. The latest pronouncements from a leading climate voice raise serious questions about the efficacy of the global response and demand a fundamental reassessment of strategies to address the escalating climate crisis.