Revised data released this week by the Statistical Federal Office (Destatis) paints a complex and somewhat concerning picture of Germany’s industrial sector in September 2025. While a preliminary rise of 1.1% in real incoming orders within the manufacturing industry compared to August initially suggested a positive trend, a deeper analysis reveals underlying weaknesses and a potential divergence between headline figures and the underlying economic health.
Removing the impact of large-scale orders, incoming orders actually increased by a more substantial 1.9% month-on-month. However, a three-month comparison reveals a 3.0% decrease in overall incoming orders and a 1.5% decline excluding those significant contracts – a worrying trend that challenges the narrative of robust industrial recovery. The initial assessment of a 0.4% drop in August, following July, has also been revised upward following further scrutiny.
The slight upward movement in September was primarily driven by growth in specific sectors. The automotive industry saw a 3.2% increase in orders, while the manufacture of electrical equipment surged by 9.5%. Furthermore, orders related to specialized vehicle construction, encompassing aviation, shipbuilding, rail transport and military vehicles, grew by a significant 7.5%. This concentration of growth, however, masks a more problematic situation.
A crucial drag on the overall results stemmed from a sharp decline (-19.0%) in the production of metal products. This decrease, coupled with a considerable downturn in metal production and processing (-5.6%), highlights a vulnerability within a traditionally strong sector. The August figures were significantly impacted by several large, one-off orders not repeated in September, but the persistent weakness in this area warrants close examination and potential intervention.
While orders for capital goods remained stagnant, increases were recorded for intermediate goods (1.4%) and consumer goods (6.2%). A significant discrepancy emerged when analyzing order origin. Foreign orders rose by 3.5%, with orders from outside the Eurozone showing particularly strong growth at 4.3%, while domestic orders experienced a 2.5% decrease. This points to an increasing reliance on external demand and suggests a potential lack of confidence within the German domestic market.
Compounding these concerns, the real turnover within the manufacturing sector declined by 2.1% compared to August and by 2.7% compared to September 2024. The August figures were also revised downwards. These consecutive declines in turnover, alongside the uneven order patterns, raise questions regarding the long-term sustainability of current growth rates and cast a shadow over the government’s projections for industrial revitalization, particularly given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and rising energy costs. The diverging trends, with external orders contributing positively while domestic demand weakens, demand a strategic policy response to rebalance growth and foster internal investment.