A resurgence of mandatory military service is gaining momentum in Germany, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over the nation’s ability to meet NATO commitments. Former Armed Forces Commissioner Hans-Peter Bartels has issued a stark warning against experimental hybrid conscription models currently being debated by the governing coalition of Social Democrats (SPD) and Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU). He argues there is “no alternative” to reinstating a universal draft for young men.
The proposed compromise, reportedly deviating from Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’ initial plans, hinges on a potential lottery system. While Pistorius initially advocated for mandatory registration for all 18-year-old males, the current draft suggests a reliance on volunteer recruitment. Should volunteer numbers prove insufficient to meet requirements, a lottery, albeit deemed “tinkering” by Bartels, could be implemented to compel service. SPD parliamentary group leader Matthias Miersch has publicly endorsed this contingency.
Bartels contends that years of modifications to the voluntary system since 2011 have proved unproductive. He emphasizes the critical need for decisiveness given the heightened risk of conflict with Russia. Critically, he points out the 1996 Constitutional Court decision that ended conscription wasn’t predicated on issues of fairness, but rather a political decision by a CDU/FDP-led parliament.
Currently, Germany could potentially register around 200,000 young men annually for military service. To align with NATO goals, approximately 70,000 recruits are needed each year, acknowledging the likelihood of some deferrals and declarations of conscientious objection. The focus, Bartels asserts, should be on restoring conscription, allowing flexibility in the immediate transition period with “volunteering first” but prioritizing the rapid strengthening and predictable planning of the Bundeswehr’s personnel.
However, concerns also exist regarding the proposed length of voluntary service. Military historian Sönke Neitzel, from the University of Potsdam, believes a mere six months is inadequate to transform conscripts into combat-ready soldiers. He suggests a minimum service period of one year along with a selective conscription model, emphasizing the necessity for troops deployable on Germany’s eastern flank.
Neitzel underscores a historical perspective, recalling that during the Cold War, Germany maintained a pool of 240,000 conscripts annually, readily prepared for potential combat. He argues that a return to this level of readiness is imperative, acknowledging the grim, but not unthinkable, prospect of future conflict and the potential requirement for mandatory service personnel to participate in active combat. The suggested division of territorial versus field armies and the preparedness to deploy on the front raises significant political and strategic debates within Germany’s defense planning.