Six months into their tenure, Germany’s governing coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) are facing a stark indictment of their performance, according to a new survey by the Allensbach Institute commissioned by Capital and the FAZ newspapers. The “Elitepanel” comprising 500 leaders from business, politics and government agencies, reveals a significant erosion of confidence in the coalition’s ability to guide the nation.
Where initial optimism prevailed upon the coalition’s inception in early 2022, with reversed sentiment, the latest findings demonstrate a dramatic shift. Now, a resounding 64% express serious doubts about the coalition’s agenda’s efficacy in propelling Germany forward, compared with just 33% who hold a belief in its continued viability. This represents a substantial decline in perceived leadership capability.
The survey particularly highlights deep dissatisfaction with the coalition’s economic policy. A majority – 61% – state their disappointment with the joint economic agenda, whereas only 32% express satisfaction. This shortfall comes amid a backdrop of global crises and challenges uniquely impacting Germany’s domestic economic landscape. Furthermore, a clear majority (61%) deems the government insufficiently robust to navigate present conditions, a criticism absent from earlier assessments.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz, however, emerges as a relative outlier within the struggling coalition. Notably, 56% perceive him as a strong leader, a considerable improvement from his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, whose leadership was deemed weak by 70% as early as 2022. Among the cabinet, only Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) and Foreign Minister Johannes Wadephul (CDU) are garnering moderately positive ratings, while the rest, including Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD), are underperforming and struggling to secure support.
Beyond domestic concerns, the survey also sheds light on anxieties regarding the United States. An overwhelming 86% of the surveyed leaders voice profound concern that Donald Trump’s policies will inflict lasting damage to American democracy. Furthermore, 73% of respondents anticipate that Trump’s policies will negatively impact the US economy rather than fostering prosperity. While the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs and protectionist measures on German businesses remains slightly less dire overall – with 61% deeming the impact as limited – the potential for disruption is clearly present.
The survey findings, gathered from September 8th to 30th, 2024, present a sobering evaluation of the German government’s direction and underscore a growing sense of unease amongst the nation’s leading figures, raising questions about the coalition’s long-term stability and its capacity to address the pressing issues facing Germany.