The Lower Saxony Minister-President, Olaf Lies, has urged the German federal government to swiftly broker a consensus in Brussels regarding the planned ban on internal combustion engine vehicles. Speaking to Politico, Lies emphasized the urgency, stating, “An agreement must be reached this week” to allow Friedrich Merz to present a unified position at the upcoming EU summit.
Lies acknowledged the original target of 15 million electric vehicles by 2030 is now realistically unattainable, but firmly opposed any future allowances for technology neutrality beyond 2035. He advocated for exceptions limited to range extenders and plug-in hybrids. A purely synthetic fuel (e-fuel) strategy, he deemed, would be impractical and disconnected from everyday realities, instead proposing a system of offsetting carbon emissions.
His proposal hinges on a sophisticated credits system. The emissions generated by a limited number of range extenders and hybrids allowed after 2035 – potentially around 10% of the market – would be compensated by reductions in the emissions of the broader existing fleet of approximately 250 million internal combustion engine vehicles. This compensation would involve the blending of sustainable fuels. Beyond fuel technology, Lies also highlighted the need to address the carbon footprint of steel production within the vehicle manufacturing chain, a development he believes would also benefit the German steel industry.
Recognizing the importance of affordability, Lies championed the introduction of “super credits” to accelerate the market penetration of smaller, budget-friendly electric vehicles. These credits would disproportionately recognize the carbon savings achieved by these vehicles, making their production financially viable under increasingly stringent fleet emission limits and providing a critical incentive to compete with Asian manufacturers.
The debate now centers on the scope of emissions calculations. A shift towards a lifecycle assessment methodology – encompassing emissions from every stage of a vehicle’s production, from raw material extraction to disposal – is gaining traction. This approach, previously advocated by BMW, has the potential to reduce the apparent emissions of conventional vehicles while simultaneously raising the reported emissions of electric vehicles, highlighting the complexities of the analysis.
Lies underscored the responsibility of Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) in achieving climate goals. He warned that failure within the transport sector would necessitate shifting the burden onto other industries – potentially impacting the chemical, steel and glass sectors. Schneider now faces the difficult task of balancing job security with the demands of climate protection, a challenge that exemplifies the broader political headwinds surrounding the transition to electric mobility.